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TransUnion (TRU)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Solid beat-and-hold quarter: TRU exceeded Q1 guidance across revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EPS, with organic constant currency growth of 8% and margin expansion to 36.2% as U.S. Financial Services and insurance led growth while International rose mid-single digits constant currency .
- Outperformance drivers: Mortgage revenue rose 27% despite ~10% decline in inquiries (pricing and non tri-bureau revenue), non-mortgage Financial Services accelerated (consumer lending/fintech and auto), and transformation savings lifted margins; GAAP EPS also benefited from a $56M legal accrual reduction .
- Guidance: FY25 organic CC revenue growth maintained at 4.5–6%; FY25 revenue raised to $4.358–$4.417B (from $4.333–$4.393B) while Adjusted EBITDA ($1.549–$1.590B) and Adjusted EPS ($3.93–$4.08) unchanged; Q2 guide embeds cautious expense timing and a ~1pt FX headwind .
- Balance sheet/capital allocation: Leverage ratio improved to 2.9x; ~$10M of buybacks executed through mid‑April; quarterly dividend declared at $0.115 per share; capex ~6% of revenue in Q1 (FY guide 8%) .
- Stock catalysts: Continued mortgage pricing tailwind, execution on OneTru migrations and AI-enabled productivity (OneTru Assist), and signs of reacceleration in India could sustain estimate momentum; management remains prudently conservative given macro/policy uncertainty (beat-and-hold posture) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- U.S. Markets +9% with Financial Services +15% (ex-mortgage +9%); mortgage revenue +27% vs inquiries down ~10%, pointing to pricing and mix benefits; insurance posted double-digit growth within Emerging Verticals .
- Margin expansion: Adjusted EBITDA +11% to $397M; margin +115 bps to 36.2%, aided by revenue flow-through and transformation savings .
- Technology and AI execution: OneTru migration advancing (90+ U.S. credit customers dual-run); OneTru Assist (AI tool) lifted developer productivity by 20–50%, supporting faster innovation and structural efficiency .
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What Went Wrong
- Consumer Interactive declined 1% YoY as expected; business remains in turnaround pending freemium rollout completion and stabilization of breach-related comps .
- India soft start (+1% CC) on anticipated consumer credit moderation vs tough comp; reacceleration expected through 2025 but near-term drag persisted in Q1 .
- Cash from operations modest ($52.5M) due to AR timing and higher bonus payouts; capex increased (though still 6% of revenue) and free cash flow conversion remains in transition year .
Financial Results
Consolidated performance vs prior quarters
Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment breakdown – Q1 2025
KPIs & cash/returns
Non-GAAP note: GAAP net income included a $56M reduction of a legal accrual; Adjusted metrics exclude this and other items per reconciliation .
Guidance Changes
Q2 2025 new guidance: Revenue $1.076–$1.095B; Adj. EBITDA $375–$386M; Adj. EPS $0.95–$0.99; organic CC growth +3%–+5%; ~1pt FX headwind; some expense timing shift from Q1 .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “In the first quarter, TransUnion exceeded financial results on all key metrics…Revenue grew 8% on an organic constant currency basis…U.S. market…Financial Services grew 15%...Mortgage was up 27%, modestly above expectations due to favorable pricing and additional non tri-bureau mortgage revenue” – Chris Cartwright, CEO .
- “Adjusted EBITDA margin was 36.2%, up 115 basis points…due primarily to revenue flow-through, annualization of transformation savings and timing of certain investments” – Todd Cello, CFO .
- “We are initially focused on dual running over 90 U.S. credit customers on OneTru…we’re already seeing a 20% to 50% lift in our developers’ productivity from leveraging [OneTru Assist]” – CEO .
- “Our leverage ratio declined to 2.9x…We repurchased $10 million of shares in March and April” – CEO .
- “If trends continue from what we saw in Q1 and what we've seen thus far, we have good visibility to exceeding the high end of the full year guidance…right now, there's just a significant amount of uncertainty” – CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- India reacceleration: Confidence driven by RBI pivot (rate cuts, NBFC reauthorization) and strong sales/analytics pipeline; expect sequential improvement and exit FY at high-teens growth cadence .
- Mortgage dynamics: Q1 revenue/inquiry gap (~+37 pts) from pricing and inclusion of prequal/home equity/batch marketing; FY guide assumes continued modest inquiry declines with ~+20% revenue growth .
- Fintech/consumer lending: Funding improved; demand for debt consolidation supports growth in slowing economy; no broad pull-forward outside auto .
- Free cash flow conversion: ~70% in 2025 (last year of transformation spend), returning to 90%+ in 2026 as capex moves from ~8% to ~6% of revenue .
- Regulatory environment: Management noted material expected changes with administration transition; operating focus unchanged pending clarity .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 beat: Revenue $1,095.7M vs $1,068.5M consensus*; Adjusted EPS $1.05 vs $0.98 consensus*; upside from mortgage pricing/mix, strengthening fintech/auto volumes, and transformation savings .
- Outlook to estimates: Management maintained FY25 growth ranges and raised the reported revenue range modestly while embedding macro caution; consensus may move up modestly on near-term revenue/EPS, but FY numbers likely stay anchored to conservative tone until clearer macro/India inflection emerges .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Quality beat with resilient margin expansion; revenue mix (pricing, non-tri-bureau mortgage, insurance, fintech) offsets subdued inquiries and supports above-consensus prints .
- FY guide discipline indicates “beat-and-hold” strategy; upside skew if current volume trends persist and India reaccelerates as expected in H2 .
- Structural improvements (OneTru migrations, AI developer tools) are tangible and should sustain innovation velocity and cost leverage into 2026+ .
- Mortgage remains a key lever: revenue growth outpacing inquiries via pricing/mix; watch for rate-related refinancing optionality as a medium-term upside .
- Consumer Interactive is in transition; freemium launch and Monevo integration expand DTC funnel and offers network—monitor adoption/ARPU trajectory through 2H .
- Balance sheet flexibility improved (2.9x leverage); moderate buybacks plus dividend provide floor to TSR while delevering toward <2.5x target .
- Near-term trading: Positive skew on continued execution and mortgage/fintech momentum; medium-term thesis underpinned by portfolio diversification, tech modernization, and through-cycle growth track record .
Additional Noteworthy Items for Q1 2025
- Closed acquisition of Monevo (credit prequalification and distribution), primarily benefiting U.K. and Consumer Interactive; not material to FY25 leverage or earnings .
- OneTru platform progress highlighted in separate release with client outcomes and scalability across solutions (TruValidate, TruIQ, TruAudience) .
- New partnership in cyber insurance (TruEmpower/ CyberScout) extends SMB cyber risk services via K2 Cyber .